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MPAC's Q4 2024 Residential Market Insights closes out the year with cumulative new assessment, regional trends, and segment data. A baseline read for insurers and consumers heading into 2025 and the 2026 assessment cycle.
MPAC's Q4 2024 Residential Market Insights report closes the 2024 reporting year and provides the natural baseline against which to read the 2025 quarterly and annual numbers. The 2024 numbers tell a story of a market that absorbed Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2024, continued regional divergence, and prepared the ground for the 2025 assessment roll. For insurance, the 2024 baseline is what the 2025 numbers are compared against, and the 2024-to-2025 delta is the most actionable short-term signal.
The 2024 cumulative new assessment, total dwelling counts, and the distribution of value across residential, commercial, industrial, and farm property classes together set the baseline for the 2025 numbers. The 2024 total assessment value, combined with the new assessment added in 2024, gives a starting point against which the $41.45 billion in 2025 new assessment can be interpreted as either incremental growth or, in some regions, replacement of depreciated stock.
For insurance, the 2024 baseline matters because replacement cost benchmarks and rate filings were calibrated against it. When 2025 new assessment numbers come in significantly above or below the 2024 baseline in a specific sub-market, that signals a recalibration is in order.
MPAC's 2024 numbers reinforce what the 2025 numbers confirm: Ontario's property value is increasingly concentrated in the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe. For insurance carriers, this concentration is a portfolio-management concern, not a growth strategy. A book of business that is 70% GTA-anchored is more exposed to a single severe-weather event than a book that is 30% GTA-anchored with the remaining 70% spread across Eastern, Central, Northern, and Southwestern Ontario.
For consumers, the corollary is that carriers writing only in dense urban markets are vulnerable to single-event losses and tend to react with sharp rate increases after such events. Carriers with diversified Ontario books tend to have more stable pricing over time. InsurVibe's city-level comparison is the consumer-side counterpart to carrier-side geographic diversification.
Three segments deserve close attention in 2025. First, GTA condominiums: the Q3 2025 data already shows a 6.5% YoY price decline, and the longer-term trend bears watching. Second, single-detached in Ottawa and Eastern Ontario: a relatively more stable segment that nonetheless faces the same rate and demographic headwinds as the GTA. Third, Northern Ontario: small absolute numbers but high insurance rate spreads between carriers, where comparison shopping yields the largest consumer benefit.
For InsurVibe users, the watch list translates to a recommendation: re-shop your insurance at every renewal, especially if you are in one of these three segments. The 2024-to-2025 delta is large enough that a 12-month-old quote may not reflect current market pricing for your property type and sub-market.
The 2024 baseline tells you the market conditions against which last year's quotes were calibrated. If your renewal premium is moving significantly out of line with the 2024-to-2025 delta, that's a signal to compare. InsurVibe's comparison tool surfaces this directly by showing your quote against the city-level and segment-level benchmark.
Not harder in absolute terms — the GTA remains the deepest insurance market in Canada. But carriers are watching concentration risk more carefully, which translates to more selective underwriting on older buildings, specific endorsements, and high-value properties. The most actionable response as a consumer is to compare quotes from multiple carriers rather than renewing with the incumbent.